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by Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller

Although the future is highly uncertain, it is clear that the consequences of immigration can be assessed only over very long horizons. Some U.S.-born children of immigrants arriving today will still be alive 130 years from now. Perhaps the most important conclusion, on which most analysts agree, is that the overall fiscal consequences of altering the volume of immigration would be quite small and should not be a major consideration for policy. We find that 100,000 more immigrants per year would initially raise taxes for nonimmigrants, and later reduce them, by amounts less than 1 percent of current tax levels. Costs will be much heavier for states and local areas that receive many incremental immigrants, while states with few immigrants should reap the advantages of reduced federal and OASDI taxes without bearing the local costs of education and health care for immigrants.

American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000.

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